Option bidders doubt …

Option bidders doubt …

Options traders doubt bitcoin rally amid halving

Option trading participants doubt the rise in the price of bitcoin after the halving in May 2020, writes CoinDesk, citing data from the Skew analytical platform.

From the ratio of positions it was found that the probability of holding the rate above $ 8,000 by the end of September is estimated at about 50%. In other words, traders are unsure if Bitcoin will trade above $ 8,000 4 months after the halving of what is supposed to be a bullish event. A week ago, when Bitcoin was around $ 10,000, this probability was estimated at 65%.

The likelihood of holding the rate above the X mark at the expiration of the contract Source: Skew

The third halving in bitcoin history will take place in about 70 days. Then the reward for miners will be lowered from 12.5 BTC per block to 6.25 BTC. Now, many analysts argue that halving will lead to a shortage of supply, as a result of which the price will again rush up.

“In about 200 days (69 days before halving), 99.8% of the world’s population will be unable to buy one bitcoin,” writes Morgan Creek Digital co-founder Jason Williams..

Options market participants estimate the probability of Bitcoin’s rise above the current all-time high of about $ 20,000 by the end of June at 3%. By the end of September, this probability rises to 6%. In addition, the probability of a rise above the June 2019 high at $ 13,880 is estimated at 11% by the end of June this year, and 16% by the end of September..

Option bidders doubt ...

In the past, the Bitcoin market cycle peaked within one year of the halving, but this happened before the event, not after, says an analyst at Rekt Capital. So, in December 2013, bitcoin reached a maximum of $ 1,150, and by January 2015 it dropped to $ 150. By November of that year, the price had climbed to $ 502, confirming a bullish reversal. Then, in February 2016, Bitcoin dropped to a low of $ 365 and climbed to its new cycle high of $ 778 in June, a month before the halving. A similar situation was observed in 2012.

Following this pattern, Bitcoin should rise above $ 13,880 over the next two months. Again, options traders don’t think so. The probability of a rise above $ 14,000 by the end of March is estimated at 3%, above $ 10,000 – at 21%.

The likelihood of holding the rate above the X mark at the expiration of the contract Source: Skew

Option bidders doubt ...
Option bidders doubt ...

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